"airing my dirty laundry in public" .. that simple, huh ?

welcome back.

here is a copy of an email I sent. I hope the recipients respond but I'm not holding my breath. Said recipients have zero interest in poker. They have less than zero interest in my poker. By default, I believe they have zero knowledge of poker as well.

Disclaimer - I'm simply trying to get an idea across, therefor the math is NOT real world. 

This started out as a short message .. but sort of grew out of proportion as I went along. The long and the short of it is .. I'll be playing tonight, beer in hand. Ergo, pretty much free chips if you run into me later on in the evening.

After tonight, I'll pretty much be beerless .. yup, I'm pretty much life skint. So if you run into me after tonight and kick my ass, I'll have no excuses what so ever.

So much for a short explanation !

So last time I played poker was Tuesday night, email attached of the small-field mtt tournament which I won. This is the reason I play poker. It’s about real money.

I've never made much overall because I may win before the beer kicks in but mostly give it back once I've had a few. I think I'm pretty good (but almost all poker players think that !) since I have not had to deposit money on a poker site since 2009 (.. or was it 2008 ?). I really think I can make some good sweetie money playing non-alcoholic poker.

and it will only be sweetie money to start. Let’s be honest, playing cash games at the 1c/2c level and $1 or $2 tournaments (in my "spare" time) i.e. micro-stakes,  means that I can only expect to make micro-prizes.

You are probably surprised to know that I practice good poker bankroll management. i.e. I play these tiny stakes to avoid going busto. You will also be surprised to know that if I did go busto, I would wait till my £50 pocket money hits my poker account (yes, that’s how I perceive my xxxxxxxxxx account) before I would deposit money onto a poker site.

In a nutshell, I'll continue small stakes poker, continue practicing good poker bankroll management and start to play non-alcoholic poker (no choice since I just won’t carry spare cash about that I can blow on the booze)

As a side note, I need to get the money off Neteller and also off that trading site, whatever the hell it’s called these days.

You once asked why I played "so many tables" at the same time ?

Variance.

I'll try to explain.

If you have the best starting hand before the community cards are dealt, then you'd expect to win that hand and any money that had been bet on that hand by yourself and by any other player who played in that hand.

If poker were that simple then it would be very boring. (and no-one would ever ever make any money in the long term.)

So you start the hand with the very best starting hand and two other players decide to play their hands as well (matching any bets that you make). This single hand of poker ends when the five community cards have been dealt and once the betting has finished.

Assuming the three of you are still in the hand, it’s time to flip over your cards and see who has the best finishing hand. The guy with the best hand at this showdown wins the money that has been bet.

The "problem" is, of course, that people do not just play the very best starting hand.

Even though you started the hand as the favourite and with two others in the hand, you will only win 2 out of three times. It's mathematically, statistically and any other "....lly" you can think of, impossible to win one hundred percent of the time, if the hands go to showdown. And the more people in a hand, the less likely you are to win said hand !!

As a general rule of thumb, the lower the stakes, the more often a hand will go to showdown.

In the above hand, if all the betting takes place before the community cards are dealt .. and you lose the hand .. this is commonly referred to as (negative) variance.  ((strangely enough, no-one seems to talk about positive variance i.e. when the best starting hand actually wins))

The above example is an extremely simple one (yes, I'm that simple) and is highly unlikely to occur like this in real life.

If we stick with this simple example model.

You'll only get dealt the very best starting hand once every 221 hands .. you'll win every two times out of three .. so you'll basically only win two out of 663 hands dealt .. eek !

Keeping with the simple, if you only play one table, it could take 5 hours to be dealt those first 221 hands .. I don’t think anyone has that much time to waste.

So, too overcome variance (i.e. the times your best starting hand does NOT win) players want to play a lot of hands.

You cannot play a lot of hands playing only one table.

To play as many hands in as short a time as possible .. play at as many tables as you can, simples.

I know it’s a really really simple hypothetical model but I'm just trying to get the general idea across.

Oh before I forget, here is the email regards my win in that small field multi-table-tourney.

PokerStars Tournament #671827734, Triple Stud

Buy-In: $2.00/$0.20 USD
68 players
Total Prize Pool: $136.00 USD
Tournament started 2013/01/15 19:20:00 WET [2013/01/15 14:20:00 ET]

Dear ResdentEvil,

You finished the tournament in 1st place. A USD 37.50 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

 

As you can see, I "won" $37.50 .. minus the $2.20 entry fee .. so let’s call it $35.

My net profit for Tuesday night was actually only $22 .. err, how come ?

I'd be more than happy to win that every night. Sadly, I'm subject to variance as much as the next guy and it’s entirely possible that I may not have won any cash at all. In fact, it’s more likely variance will intervene and I won’t make any cash at all.

To overcome this I played in six or eight tournaments on Tuesday night, won bugger all in the other tournaments but cashed in this one for an overall profit on the night.

and that’s the overall idea .. play a shit load of tournaments or cash tables, play good poker, overcome the negative variance and make a profit.

Tried to keep it simple and just look at the length of this email ! If I tried to explain in real world terms, this email would be easily 10-times as long !

Congratulations if you actually read this thing in one sitting ! and I sincerely hope my explanation has not been lost in the translation :)


Seriously, if you read it all, nice one.

pleasant dreams

thay said .... (5)

welcome back

 the difference between what you want and what you have, is what you do. .... (pokerbug )

"don't get cocky, son"

"if a reg plays back at me, he has a hand, respect .. wait for a better spot .. there will ALWAYS be a better spot"

Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it. .... (From 2+2 "Irieguy")

"if you have your health, you have everything"

pleasant dreams

smallest of things

welcome back

ran across this in a blog post today and it just made me lol.

" Scottish people have the coolest accents. (I sound like a stoned valley girl.) They sound like they are slugging whiskey while toting a shotgun and a full beard. "

pleasant dreams

ps thanks assassinato

welcome back

still ploughing thru assassinato's blog. good stuff, wonder when it will change to the "god" shit. no worries, his blog.

real life shit weekend, pfffft.  (hope yours was better, seriously !)

still fucking about wi turbs/hypers .. and mostly -EV .. my play may not be stunning, but theres' is worse, no really, it is, lol.

on Saturday night I played one Omaha tourn .. won it

Sunday .. a first and a second ..

dont u just love destructo ....

fuck all this negativity, on a positive note ....  just came 1/168 .. Omaha fucking obviously, for 36-buy-ins.

magic (lol)

pleasant dreams

(read this blog, .. again .. , I can play this fucking game .. I just need a little bit of fucking support, ffs)

On Golden Pond

welcome back

Haven't played ahand of Omaha since last week. I kind of know now when I'm in destructo mode so I (wisely) decided to knock it on the head. (thats bankroll destructo mode, btw)

I'd also decided that forum games were -ev and I was going to play less of them .. (dammit, they are fun wheeee). So I decide to play their Saturday night game which I thought was 08 .. err, no .. that'll be H.O.R.S.E. then, sigh. No probs, I like H.O.R.S.E.

With 30 runners and only 4 down, the hand happened. Playing stud with big bets at 800 and a 6k stack, Thierry and I get involved.
I pulled my flush on fifth. I bet out and he tanks .. during which time I study my cards and his up cards .. I had AJ9xx spades .. he has (xx)Qxx with two clubs ..

My one thought : "He is chasing the flush, he is going to outkick me"

Sixth gave me another spade and gave him the J of clubs. I bet he raises, I call. Check seventh, he bets, I call .. leaving me one big bet.

I knew the chips were going his way. I had AJ9.. but he had AJQ..

I know that as hand strengths go, that is technically incorrect but that's how I "read" it .. we both have AJ flushes but he has the better kicker. Fucking soul read and I still don't fold. Way to go Res, way-to-go.

Destructo mode in full effect.

So what can I play then ? What is the cheapest of the cheap that 'stars has to offer ?
After rooting about in the lobby, I find 2c hyper turbos, lol. These will keep me amused for weeks !
Some of the play is truly lol. Mines included :)
I saw something I don't think I've seen before. Very first hand. A 7-way all-in pre-flop. Yup. I was in too, with TT and though I hit my set there were three spades come the river and the flush man sends six of us to the rail, awesome and truly lol.

I decided to play last nights forum game (sic). Supposed to be a turbo but they set it up wrong, 10 minute blinds.
After an eternity (3 1/2 hours) I am heads up .. (literally) falling asleep at the desk .. not sure who had the idea but we chopped and flipped. I was so nearly sleeping I would have accepted any deal, seriously.
I won the flip, good for $37 .. less the six I owe to second place .. less the $3 entry .. less the $2.50 bubble to forum .. basically boils down to net $25, ho hum.

See ? forum games are so -EV. So I'll be playing two cent hyper turbos this week.

pleasant dreams

under "Blaise Pascal" (Pa)

welcome back

oh I know where to start. Ran across assassinato's blog. Recent entries piqued my interest, in as much as, I liked the "random" part but some of the entries were down right abstract. So abstract that they are way over my head, lol. I attribute this to the cultural and generational differences.
I was interested enough to see what his blog started out as though. Glad I did as the first few years have made interesting reading. Less abstract, more random. Quite a lot of poker too.

Glad to see theDonkey cracked ! and has returned to the blogosphere and to poker. I so missed his rants, lol. It seems that nothing much has changed in his absence.
He has, however, blagged himself a staking deal. Talking about a 100 buy-in rule and playing $7 tourns .. thats a serious amount of wonga someone is throwing at him !
I have my reservations about staking. Heard some awful stories regarding them. I guess if you "know" and TRUST your benefactor, then it should be a good deal for you. I can understand the argument that it removes a layer of pressure off you (smoke and mirrors, imho) .. I think that monetary pressure is still there, albeit slightly below the surface .. and it will surface with a vengeance if you go on a losing streak.
I guess it depends on your backers expectations and also of your own expectations of yourself.
I hope it goes well in the long run but I am looking forward to some old school ranting !

I see zagga is still taking a break. As far as I'm aware he is still playing on the weekends. I look forward to his return as I usually enjoy his "right, thats enough pish for now" style.

I see the other donkey is making plans for the future. Fair play and good luck if push comes to shove mate.
Me ? I doubt I could do this. In fact, at this point in time, I know I could not do this. I just do not possess that sort of discipline far less the motivation that would be required.

I mean, after last months nice run, I promptly returned to my habitual bad form, ffs. Now there's discipline for you, not.

In other news, mrsEvil is exerting pressure that I should get my ass home every night. Its not like that ffs ! Its all down to working for the man. If you're backed at poker, is that not still working for the man ? Random thought, ho hum.
Reckon I can hold her off for the remainder of this year but next year I suspect a career move/change is going to be dealt to this donk sitting in seat 7. (no probs with that, given more years than I care to remember to this damned industry)
If I step back and look from her side of the fence I can wholly understand her point of view and that happens very rarely.

So its back to trying to break my bad habits and make some sweetie money for the remainder of this year. Right, that's enough pish for one day ....

pleasant dreams

they said .... (3) & (4)

welcome back

"don't get cocky, son"

"if a reg plays back at me, he has a hand, respect .. wait for a better spot .. there will ALWAYS be a better spot"

"Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it." .... (From 2+2 "Irieguy")

"if you have your health, you have everything"

pleasant dreams

.. it is now !

welcome back

October is over. I won the bet. The bet has been paid. Nice one sir and thanks for such prompt payment. I actually want to thank him more for providing me with the much needed motivation.
Two pictures for you. First is all the ca$h hands I played, second is filtered to show only 2c tables.



Both look alright but the 2c filter kinda smooths things out. Yes I know its not a lot of money but it is if you count it in bb's. Its 3750 bb's if you can't be bothered doing the math.
So I have $380 and I will continue to donk the micro's until I get five hundred, then its a big jump to 25c tables. The 5c and 10c tables are always dead (thanks 'stars for making them all "fast" , thru your greed, you have all but fucking killed them) so not much option if I want to play higher. The other eek factor about the next level is most tables are no-limit. Interesting.
I had to laugh tho when I checked my 'stars balance tonight. I'd been told the money had been sent but the cashier showed only $380 .... expected it to say $430 .... hmmmm .... surely 'stars would just add the money to my balance in USD ? err no. I clicked the GBP tab and there it was, fifty quid, lol.
Once (if !!) I can get my balance up to 1k in Brit pounds, I'll just manage the thing in said Brit pounds. Makes it 'ell of a lot easier when it comes to withdrawals. Sorry blood sucking leeches bankers, no more "fees" for converting US$ deposits to Brit pounds when they hit my account.

pleasant dreams

raising 7 of 9

welcome back

final push tonight, last session and all. pretty much got a lock on the bet .. as long as I stay away from the $50 tarbs, lol.
Just a quick graph showing the equity of playing with lunatics. The loon was open raising at least seven hands per orbit and then barrelling every street. It was a sight to behold.
One word of warning. Don't get sucked in to playing like them. One player did exactly this and went from a 5-buy-in stack to zero, reloading twice !

I played one hand ....

Thats right, out of 44 hands, I played one.

pleasant dreams

almost done

welcome back

so week 4 done, only a few days to go. This has been a long month.

Well, only two sessions to go. Lets hope I can hold it together !

Starting with $310, a big fat zero vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

Currently $380, a not big fat 370 vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

pleasant dreams

they said .... (2)

welcome back

"if you have your health, you have everything"

"Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it." .... (From 2+2 "Irieguy")

pleasant dreams

they said .... (1)

welcome back

"if you have your health, you have everything"

pleasant dreams

final furlong, leading by a length

welcome back

EDIT post title should perhaps be
"stop taking shots (multiple table shots) at levels you are not rolled for, you fucking twat, especially when you have a bet on" ....
sigh, whats a degen to do.

All I can say is good riddance week three. Running my top full house into quads was a real "oh fuck" moment and then running nut low and a straight into a nut low and a higher straight was an "oh ffs" moment. Wouldn't it be nice if someone invented a piece of software which popped up the simple message "unable to hit a cow on the arse with a cricket bat, quit NOW" , sigh.
I got out the hole by hitting nut low and two pair v crappy low and the obligatory aces and then I was nearly, oh so nearly in the major black when, in a 5-handed showdown I had the nut flush and second nut low (nut low got counterfeited, natch), whee .. err not quite, one villain had the nut low, doh ! It was an $80 pot, doh !
Quite an interesting hand actually. Nut flush v second nut flush v nut straight v second nut straight v two pair (?) and nut low v second nut low .... try figuring all that out on the river when you're the small blind !

sigh, here is the pretty picture

Started with $310, a big fat zero vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

Currently $363, a not big fat 290 vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

pleasant dreams

(you can be fucking sure I'm not.(

some would say "pesky pictures"

welcome back

Reckon there will be one or two peeps not overly impressed with this picture :) It has to be said tho, that I'm posting this midway thru week 3 .. spoiler : its so not pretty this week, meh. As someone else said, it's the long game that counts. Which is obvioulsy true but still, its uber frustrating in the short term, bah humbug.

pleasant dreams

week in pictures

welcome back

First week in the books. Overall I'm quite happy with the way I've been playing. As you can see, the 'roll is heading in, generally, the right direction.
Not too impressed by my wee foray into fifty50 land but hey ho. Also not overly impressed with my volume. It could be so much better. Something to ponder over the coming weekend since that's the times when my volume is shockingly bad.

I've also noticed that the accrual of VPP's at microstakes is virtually non-existant. At my current rate I'd need to play ten times the amount of hands played to get to the next level. Chances of that happening ? Thought not.

Starting with $310, a big fat zero vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

Currently $303, a not big fat 83 vpp's and a very, very heavy bronze star.

pleasant dreams

cough cough , splutter

welcome back

day 3 trip report. as you can see day 1 and 2 were ugh. finally started to play some sort of reasonable poker today. volume is still pretty pathetic, so still work to be done.

(don't worry bitch , I'm still in mu after a stoopid foray into the fifty50's, meh)

pleasant dreams